The International Energy Agency says global energy needs will expand by 1.6% per year on average between 2006 and 2030 – a total increase of 45% over that period.
Demand for oil is forecast to rise from 85 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) now to 106MMbbl/d in 2030. China and India account for more than half of incremental energy demand to 2030 while the Middle East is emerging as a major new demand centre. Almost all of the increase in fossil-energy production will occur in non-OECD countries. These trends call for energy-supply investment of $US26.3 trillion to 2030, or more than $US1 trillion/year.
Australia has proven energy reserves, infrastructure, competitiveness and reliability. APPEA is aiming for Australia to become the second-largest LNG export by 2017, up from fifth currently.
The positive global outlook for Australian LNG is linked to heightened energy security concerns, particularly during this period of high oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty. The global market is responding to the high oil prices, through investment in new exploration, production and refining infrastructure. Australia must also seek new domestic oil reserves (recognising that in some cases their highest value may be as an export product) and consolidate efforts to develop low-emission transport fuels and technologies.
Energy-importing counties are seeking to spread their import risks and secure access to low-cost energy while also addressing climate change. Australia's gas resources place us in a strong position to secure both domestic economic and global environmental benefits.
